SMTP AV: Time to Regroup?

JD comments about Kaspersky Labs forecast that global virus outbreaks are waning. My comments here are a reply to that.
I suspect that mass mailing viruses will be seen in the leet community like denial of service attacks. A pedestrian form of attack not worthy of anyone with skillz. That does mean they will completely disappear? No. There will always be some dope willing to do it.
The big lesson here is dont get caught fighting last years war. If you’re all confident in your smtp antivirus defenses it may be time to reexamine them.
Will attacks targeted at specific companies further reduce the role of definition based antivirus? Actually this is nothing new. I know of a company where the CEO is known to have received two different keystroke loggers by opening a .mdb file sent to him. That kind of targeted virus was tough to stop then by definition based antivirus and it will be a problem in the future unless more and more behavioral and heuristic tests are employed.